“We don’t know about tomorrow,” said the horse, “all we need to know is that we love each other.”- Charlie Mackesy

Most of you might have read my experiences with Covid. If not, it can be read here https://npbang.blogspot.com/2021/05/up-close-and-personal.html

This blog post is about the last month, post-Covid, recovery phase. I will not repeat the things that I have already mentioned in the earlier post. And once again the disclaimer: It seems that the recovery process and timeline follow a long-tailed distribution. While many may have similar and expected experiences, many others have very different trajectories. It cannot be generalized. However, what is certain is, as Kabir said:

चलती चक्की देख के, दिया कबीरा रोये ।

दो पाटन के बीच में, साबुत बचा न कोए ।

That is, between a pair of quern stones, nobody remains whole. In the context of Covid, once contracted, however mild, nobody remains as they were before Covid. Physically as well as mentally.

Homecoming: My 11 years old daughter made a poster that depicted the corona virus being killed and welcomed me home with excitement. While I have always been very fond of my home and long to get back to it even if I am away for a couple of days, the emotions that the return from the hospital elicited were intense. Legs too weak to carry me to every corner, my eyes took in as much of home as they could.

It felt like the Shahrukh Khan entry scene from the movie Kabhi Khushi Kabhi Gham. Except that I came in a car. Not a helicopter. And my daughter had a poster in her hand to welcome me instead of a puja ka thaali for aarti.

In the Storm: The primary concern for the first week was weakness and constant monitoring of oxygen saturation levels. Weakness was severe and oxygen levels did drop at times after walking a few steps or sitting for some time. Unfortunately, in the second wave, possibilities of post-covid complications were likely. So apart from weakness and oxygen levels, even a slight cough, or a headache, or eye ache, or discomfort in breathing, or a pain in the stomach, were all symptoms of black fungus or pulmonary embolism or a stomach infection or could be indicative of something else. Mind was on high alert and noticed every single change in the body. It continues to be, as the threat of a secondary infection or heart related problems loom until a few months post covid.

Upon recommendation from a friend, I read this lovely book “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” by Charlie Mackesy a few days after coming back home. And loved these lines: “This storm is real, and our fear is real,” said the horse. “But our love is also real, and in the end, love wins.”

Also, these “This storm is making me tired,” said the boy. “Storms get tired too,” said the horse, “So hold on.”

Weakness: Two things helped me regain some basic level of strength in about 10 days. First, drinking lots and lots of fluids. About 5 litres a day; water, coconut water, freshly made juices, buttermilk, and ORS. I could feel the improvement each day and even the difference on a day I had lower levels of fluids. Second, the fact that I was relatively fitter and healthy. After about 10 days, the improvement was not perceptible on a daily basis, and the delta became smaller with each passing day. My fitness level is down to zero right now. It is as though I have never exercised in my life. It may be a couple of months more before I go back to my pre-covid levels of fitness and that would now require starting with some conscious exercises and training. Patience is the key.

धीरे-धीरे रे मना, धीरे सब कुछ होय ।

माली सींचे सौ घड़ा, ॠतु आए फल होय ।

As Kabir says, everything happens at its own pace. As a gardener may water the plants with a hundred buckets of water, but the fruits arrive only in its season, similarly, whatever you may do, have patience and you will see the fruits of your hard work.

Food: While in the hospital, I lost 5kgs weight. My skin became dry, lost all elasticity, appeared wrinkled and sagged. Just a couple of days after coming back home, my appetite suddenly went up. I regained some taste. And wanted to eat all the time. Even now, a month later, I feel like eating all the time. With increased appetite, the weight came back, and some more ☹. Here, I must say that I ate regular food that is cooked at home and did not make any attempt to eat healthier options that few people suggested. I included seasonal fruits (only mangoes, litchis and watermelons) and lots of fluids in my diet. The dryness of the skin has improved though it remains loose. Again, exercise should help with toning.

जिन खोजा तिन पाइया, गहरे पानी पैठ,

मैं बपुरा बूडन डरा, रहा किनारे बैठ

In these couplets, Kabir inspires us to work hard and seek. Those who search in deep waters, find something. Whereas those who sit at the fence for fear of drowning do not get anything. So, I must pursue fitness now and get rid of the fear that Covid has deep rooted in my mind, in order to get back to the pre-Covid level of fitness.

Anxiety and Insomnia: These two have been my companions frequently in the past as well. But I mostly had reasons to be anxious and could explain the sleeplessness. The frequency has now increased, and I have no reasons now.

मुझे नींद न आए, मुझे चैन न आए…

हालत क्या है कैसे तुझे बताऊँ मैं, करवट बदल-बदल के रात बिताऊँ मैं

पूछो ज़रा पूछो क्या हाल है, हाल मेरा बेहाल है

कोई समझ न पाए क्या रोग सताए…

This super hit song from the Madhuri Dixit and Amir Khan starrer movie Dil (1990) describes my state quite well. The problem is that it is very difficult to explain this to anyone. Why am I not sleeping? What is bothering me? Even I don’t know. I cannot explain. It is just an after effect of Covid.

Yes, I have tried counting 1 to 10 to calm my mind and breath; yes, I have tried deep breathing many times but did not fall asleep; yes, I have tried white noise and various apps; none of them worked. I just hope this is temporary.

Concentration and memory: I’m an academician, a researcher. A lot of what I do requires me to have a good memory, to pull out anecdotes, facts, numbers, and findings, that I might have read long ago, from the depths of my memory. People used to tell me that I have an elephant’s memory. I would remember the page number in a book where I read something interesting. I have had moments in the last few weeks when I have struggled to recall names and words. Similarly, I pride myself for my ability to concentrate even amid many distractions. The nature of my work requires me to concentrate. I am not able to watch or read for more than 2-3 minutes at a stretch now. I would be devastated if Covid has a long-lasting impact on either my concentration or memory. I hope not.

Compare this to the days when I was doing a PhD. I had flat mates who were working. They would come back from work and put on the TV or loud music and partied often at our flat. I could study with complete focus at those times too. Sometimes, when there were too many people around, I would go and sit in the balcony that faced the very busy Banjara Hills Road Number 3 (Hyderabad) and studied under the streetlight that lit a part of the balcony as well (the balcony itself had no bulb/tubelight). I could easily concentrate and study even with all the noise on the road.

How do you feel? I have no answer to this question. It is a seesaw. On one day I feel good, on the other very low. One day I have no perceptible issues, the very next day, I feel that there is a faint ache in my heart that needs investigation. Yesterday, I was laughing and joking with everyone, today, I just want to be quiet. I don’t know how to answer this question.

One of my all-time favorite movies is Hrithik Roshan and Preity Zinta starrer Lakshya (2004). Javed Akhtar wrote these lyrics that seemed more like a conversation with a best friend rather than a song and were beautifully given music to by Shankar, Ehsan and Loy.

अब मुझको ये है करना, अब मुझे वो करना है

आख़िर क्यूँ मैं ना जानूँ, क्या है कि जो करना है

लगता है अब जो सीधा, कल मुझे लगेगा उल्टा

देखो ना मैं हूँ जैसे, बिल्कुल उल्टा-पुल्टा

These lines play in my head every time someone asks me, “How are you feeling now?” or “How’s your recovery?” In my mind even my expressions are similar to those of Hrithik’s as he is dancing to this song. However, I keep a straight face and say, “I am doing quite well. Thank you.”

Covid Conversations: The most difficult part of recovery is to stay positive. Unfortunately, the time around which I had Covid, the cases were at their peak across the country. There were depressing news of people losing the battle, shortage of oxygen, medicines, beds, and deaths of people too close to home. Each day, the conversations around the morning tea inevitably shifted to Covid updates even though we started out saying that we will not talk about Covid. It had an impact on the mood at home, it seemed like there was nothing to look forward to and there was the survivor’s guilt as well as the reckoning that I had come so close to becoming “news” myself. From the time the number of cases has started coming down, there is a distinct positivity in my attitude and a desire to get well sooner. Even though it is difficult, staying positive helps.

Many songs of Kishore Kumar are brilliant. However, this one from Safar (1970) is perhaps one of his best (debatable of course).

ज़िन्दगी का सफ़र, है ये कैसा सफ़र

कोई समझा नहीं, कोई जाना नहीं

[The journey of life is incomprehensible. Nobody has been able to understand it]

The unpredictability of life has been amply demonstrated to us by Covid. However, it has also shown the helplessness of the humankind and made us accept life the way it is…

ये जीवन है, इस जीवन का

यही है, यही है, यही है रंगरूप

थोड़े ग़म हैं, थोड़ी खुशियाँ

यही है, यही है, यही है छाँव धूप

-      Piya Ka Ghar (1972), sung by Kishore Kumar

I hope this will be the concluding part of my experiences with Covid and nothing major, worth writing about, happens hence forth. I would like to end with a word of caution. I still see many people relying on cloth masks. I too wore them. In fact, I have them in all variety; Pochampally, Ikat, Madhubani, Kalamkari, with embroidery, in all colours to match my dresses. They are not at all adequate. Don’t let your guard down. Double mask up. Because it’s worth it! 

Up Close and Personal

I am neither a doctor. Nor an expert. These are my own experiences and may not apply to many others or even any other. A few may read it just as another Covid survivor’s tale, a few may find it relatable, a few may be able to recall a point or two from this note later that might tilt them in favor or against a certain decision or behavior. For me, it is a chronicle of an event that will leave an everlasting impact on my life.

Puppets: On April 3^rd, 2021, I cycled 100kms non-stop. It was no mean feat for me. Though little did I know that within a month, even taking 10 steps will be difficult. I had my entire May planned. I was on leave from April 24^th to May 30^th. I was to spend time doing nothing with my extended family. Alas, I am reminded of this scene from the 1965 blockbuster Waqt,

Waqt hi sab kuch hai. Waqt hi banata hai. Aur waqt hi bighadta hai [Time is everything. Time makes us. And time destroys us].

Whether we call it time or some super-power. There are certain things that are totally outside our control. As Anand (Rajesh Khanna) says in the 1971 superhit movie Anand, “Hum sab to rangmanch ki kathputliyan hai jinki dor upar waale ki ungliyon mein bandhi hai [we all are puppets of the theater whose string is tied in the fingers of God].”

I am not one to talk much about God. Even now I won’t. Most of you know me as a very organized and well-planned person. But the events of last month stumped each plan, everything that could go wrong, went wrong and my 5-weeks of planned leave from work now seems like a planned “Sick-leave”.

Non-Zero Probability ALWAYS exists: While taking all precautions, though not being paranoid, I believed that all of us will anyways get Covid some day or the other. It was just a matter of time. And the way I believe I contracted the virus proves that. I believe that I contracted the virus despite taking all precautions. I was not without a mask. It was perhaps an adjustment of the mask or touching of the nose or the mouth after touching an infected surface. Unconsciously. How much ever precautions one takes, none of us are safe really. So be vigilant, yet mentally prepared that you can get Covid. It is really not in your hands. We can reduce the probability of getting the virus. But we can’t make the probability zero.

Immediate Isolation: I got regular cough and cold to begin with. It had rained in Hyderabad on those days. It seemed like an allergy due to change in weather. Or at the most another episode of Sinusitis. In any case, I isolated myself immediately. And this is very important. Very early isolation is perhaps the reason my other family members and domestic help did not get it eventually. If in doubt, isolate. Completely. There is nothing like selective isolation. It is important to keep each family member safe. I often hear people say that if the entire family gets it, you are done and dusted. You don’t have to live in fear of getting it in the future. First, you can get it again. Second, each member’s body can react differently. It may not be a mild case for all. As far as you can, protect each member of the family. It is better to NOT get Covid at all.

Confirmation of Covid: In two days, I realized that I had lost smell and that is when I was sure that I had Covid. From the next day, I started to get fever as well. I started online consulting with a pulmonologist. All was fine. Medicines were regular Dolo, Zincovit and Limcee. SPO2 was above 94-95. CT Scan showed 4/25 or a 16% lung infection. It seemed like a mild case.

As a regular frustrated wife, mother, and primary caretaker of the home, I was “kind of” happy. To get food in my room for 14 days, no worries about taking care of the maids, buying groceries or vegetables, or taking care of anybody else’s needs. I would have uninterrupted time to watch mindless series on OTT platforms. Also, I would soon be on the other side. With antibodies! Free bird for at least a few months, post-covid. All wishful thinking. Short-lived.

Progression of the Illness: My temperature started to go up by the next day. It was not coming down with Dolo. It would come down momentarily with Meftal but then within an hour it was back to 103 degrees. This went on for 3 days. By then I had become quite weak. The next day I was asked to do another CT Scan that showed a 12/25 damage that is 48% lungs were infected. I was asked to get admitted. But my SPO2 was still above 92-93. I had no breathlessness, and the only concern was high fever. That too is apparently common in the latest strains of the virus. I was a bit skeptical about getting admitted. Was not feeling that sick. But Pavan did not want to take a chance. And I was not in a state to resist much.

Getting admitted would also mean that things were getting serious. It may not be as enjoyable as being at home and getting pampered! Plus, it was more hassle than what I was ready to let my family go through, with glee, albeit with a little guilt.

The Tipping Point: From the diagnostic Centre to home to hospital took about two hours. In those two hours, my condition deteriorated, and I started having breathlessness. I could not stand in the lift when going down to the car. I had to sit down. Could not walk from the lift to the car. By the time I reached the hospital, it was clear that I needed immediate oxygen support. I am writing this part in detail to convey firsthand experience of how things got critical in a just a couple of hours. And if we had delayed admission, it could have been a huge mistake. At the hospital, I was immediately put on oxygen support. I was told that I needed moderate oxygen support only and should be fine in a couple of days. I was put in a regular Covid room.

By the next day morning, my condition had deteriorated further, and I needed greater oxygen support plus monitoring. There was no further CT Scan done but it was clear that infection in my lungs had spread more. The SPO2 was coming down to 80 even with external oxygen support. Once again, it might have been very costly had we delayed hospitalization. I was able to get the right help and stabilized quickly only because I was already in the hospital. So, I do want to reiterate that early hospitalization is very important in case there are even slightest of signs of breathlessness or persistent high fever. Persistent high fever apparently internally spreads the virus very quickly and we do not realize it soon enough if we generally have a healthy lung.

Early hospitalization and correct medical support also ensure that we avoid panic and last-minute search for a hospital bed when things start to look bad. It is really a matter of hours in the case of oxygen saturation going out of hand. It is very easy for those critical hours to go by without getting the right medical support as you are figuring out hospital, doctor, bed, packing clothes, etc. Act as early as you can. Every minute counts.

For some reason, this song, written by Indeevar, from the Ajay Devgn and Tabu starrer movie Vijaypath (1994), kept playing in my mind for 2-3 days during this period. I imagined Tabu dancing in that garish pink lehenga:

aas ne dil ka saath na chhoda vaise ham ghabrae toh [hope did not leave me, though I was shaken/worried].

This line is quite appropriate, even though the complete song and the picturization of the dance in my head seems over the top and can be attributed to disorientation of my mind due to fever! But those of you who know me well know that I am perfectly capable of imagining such things even when my frame of mind is completely normal.

ICU Experience: The experiences at the ICU are life altering. You see people dying around you. Struggle of the medical force to keep someone alive. And you know that it could be you too any moment. The monitor beeps and you think “what has gone wrong?” Two nurses come to your bed together and call up a doctor. You know that something is wrong. But just trust the doctors. That’s the best that we can do as a patient. Also know that in an ICU you are being monitored round the clock and if something does go wrong, you are in the best place where a contingency can be handled. All parameters like oxygen saturation, chest condition (x-ray), blood sugar levels, heart rate, and all kinds of infections are tested for continuously. Even if something is slightly out of range, they control for it. Have that faith. Give yourself unto the experts. Keep all doubt, news and whatsapp university gyan aside. It helps.

ICU is not for rest: Doctors and nurses are truly stretched to the hilt. The working conditions donning full PPE kits are very difficult. We find it difficult to wear masks continuously. Imagine wearing a PPE kit for hours. It is frustrating to see the inefficiencies at the hospital. My analytical mind was unconsciously doing the math about how many nurse hours, bed occupation, doctor’s time, etc. can be saved if things are done in some other way or if simple things are done more consciously. But really, all resources are just focusing on keeping people alive. So, whatever the conditions, just focus on recovery, and get back home alive. Rest and relaxation can happen at home. Also, the hospitals can do an overhaul of their productivity and efficiency once the Covid wave subsides. Right now, they are doing a tremendous job of just making sure that people receive critical care.

One night, a nurse was playing a dhinchak Telugu song at a reasonably loud volume, at around 2am in the ICU. It was obviously quite frustrating, and I felt like Raja (Jimmy Shergill) from the movie Tanu Weds Manu, standing in front of the marriage bureau officer to get married while the officer chatted away on the phone with his “bebe”. While getting married was the most important event in the life of Raja and Tanu (Kangana Ranaut), it was work as usual for the marriage bureau officer.

Yes, it can be frustrating. But the nurses and doctors are humans too and the current situation is not a one-two day ordeal for them. They have been going through this over-stretched, under pressure, working conditions for too long. Give some leeway to them and the system. They are saving lives. Everything else is too trivial to complain about.

Weaning off the external oxygen support: It is a process where you need to take a leap of faith. You start feeling that you can’t breathe without the support. The heart sinks when you remove the oxygen support and slowly see the SPO2 go down to 88, 87, 86…A lot of will power needs to be mustered to keep increasing the time without oxygen support. The worst is that the SPO2 drops even if you just sit up from a lying down position. That’s the kind of weakness and lung damage that happens for some people. But remember that our system is very robust and resilient. It will bounce back. Again, keep faith, have determination, and take small steps at a time. Trust the doctors. If they say you can do it. You can.

I was shifted back to a Covid room from the ICU. The oxygen support was removed. I got off the bed and stood up to switch off the AC. There was no remote and the switch was a few steps away. I felt giddy. I held on to the railing of the bed. Took a couple of steps forward and held on to the wall. Felt giddy. Took a few more uncertain steps. Switched off the AC. Felt my head swing. I was holding on to the wall with all my might and sat down where I was. I looked around. For a moment I felt that there would be a hero who will hold me as I fall. There was none. I got up and walked back to the bed. Disappointed that I was in a hospital room and not in a Dilwale Dulhania Le Jayenge Karva Chauth scene and there was no SRK to hold me if I fainted. Covid rooms are lonely that way!

Post Covid complications: They are real. Especially if you have had a more than mild case. Weakness is severe. Inexplicable. Small things like brushing the teeth are tiring. Chewing is tiring. Limbs are like jelly. Where does all the energy and muscles disappear in a matter of a few days? Are these the same legs that pedaled 100kms?

There are other side-effects of medication that are random. For 5-6 days, whenever I closed my eyes, I was delirious. Images kept floating in front of my eyes at very fast pace. It was like being inside a fast-moving kaleidoscope. It was difficult to sleep. These side effects are slowly coming down.

On one of the nights when I felt delirious, I imagined myself on the sets of “Nainon me sapna, Sapnon me sajna, Sajnaa pe dil aa gayaa, Kyoon sajna pe dil aa gayaa”. I saw drums. The patterns on the pots, the dancers, and very fast dance steps. I am pretty sure there was no Jitendra because there was no “white”. Everything was very colorful.

The side-effects of steroids, stopping the steroids, need to be observed. Apparently, the steroids suppress a lot of activity in the body. Once the steroids are stopped, it is expected that a few discomforting symptoms may emerge. If these effects are mild, they can be ignored. They will go away on their own. If any of these symptoms are severe, then we need to investigate again.

There are many other minor things that don’t give a good feeling overall. Like for me, my ear drums are blocked. Eyes are always painful. There is a heaviness in the head. There’s a constant tingling sensation in the limbs. There is still no smell and partial loss of taste. All these are expected to slowly decrease.

Mental Frame post-Covid: In severe cases, it is close encounter with a life and death situation. Or at least we know that it could have been very close. So, there is a lot of contemplation that goes on inside the mind. Questions about the futility of everything, purpose in life, importance of family members, who matters and who does not, what matters and what does not, karma, dharma and yama, all keep cropping up. I don’t feel like talking to many people. I feel a sense of calm. There is a lot of concern about “if” there will be any “complications” during recovery. Mind is hyper alert for any new symptoms or any changes in the way I feel. I suppose this is all a part of the recovery process and slowly I will get back to being my silly self!

Whatsapp University Experts: If you get Covid, detach and totally ignore all unsolicited advice from self-proclaimed experts on Covid. Everyone seems to have advice to give on how to tackle Covid. Each covid case is different. Complication levels are different. And these people are not doctors, period. Get proper and timely medical help.

It amazes me to think that even in this age and date, there are people who think they know better than the others, are better read, better informed and therefore must impart their unasked-for advice. As though they have exclusive rights to the whatsapp university and the access to internet. Or maybe they have better reading speed and hence have read more articles than the others. Or have better comprehension than the others and hence must take it upon themselves to tell and explain to others how a Covid situation needs to be handled. Anyways, I do understand that it is difficult for a few people to refrain from giving gyan. It is their compulsive disorder. It has nothing to do with whether others’ want their gyan or not. For your own sake, ignore them. Get a qualified doctor’s help.

There are people who told me to take steam when I was in the ICU. Clearly, if taking steam would cure me, I would not have been in the ICU. There were people who told me what to eat and drink while I was in the ICU. A couple of people also sent messages asking me to tell the doctor about the medication that I should be given. If you are the patient, or the immediately family, just shut your mind from all such messages. There is no nice way of saying this.

Managing Calls and Whatsapp Messages: It is a good idea to create one message in the morning and one in the evening and send to the family and close friends whatsapp groups to avoid getting individual calls and messages. Despite this, there will be many calls and messages. I am not sure if there is an optimal way to handle them. We just hope people understand that for them it is one message. For the family and the patient, there are hundreds of messages and calls. Persistent calls and messages from a few people can be irritating. But just keep your calm and ignore them. Also, there are just too many things to take care of. We do our best in terms of replying to the messages and answering calls and hope that when we are not doing our best, people understand.

I apologize to those who complained that I did not reply to their message or did not answer their calls. It was my first time in the ICU. I was a bit, let us say, “not well”. So please do excuse me.

What I do want to emphatically say is that it is overwhelming to know that so many people care for us. We know that most of these people are just a call away in case we need any help. We know that they are really worried for us and are our well-wishers. We feel loved and important. Many of you have been silently supportive and our strength during the last couple of weeks. You know who you are, and we cannot thank you enough. We are eternally grateful for all the good wishes and prayers and lucky to have such loving friends, colleagues, and family.

Fitness and Covid: Many people wondered that I am so fit and do so much yoga and pranayama. How could I get Covid? Well, my yoga teacher tested positive too. He is one of the fittest people I know of. Plus, so many cricketers and bollywood super fits actors have got Covid. So, fitness has nothing to do with getting Covid or it’s severity. But there is a chance that I will have a faster recovery due to better immunity and generally a fitter profile. It is yet to be seen.

Overall, Covid is a very bad illness. Hope no one gets it. If at all anyone gets it, hope it is asymptomatic or very mild. Anything a little more than mild is not good and has long lasting impact on the feeling of well-being. However, one positive that has come out of me getting Covid is that now my husband knows how to “Dunzo” groceries and vegetables. Of course, it’s possible that one side effect of Covid is brain-fog for the spouse. So, he may forget it in a matter of days. However, I am hoping that “Dunzoing” is like swimming or driving. Once you learn it, it becomes muscle memory. Yet to be seen and tested.

Thank you for reading this account of my experiences and being a part of my journey for a while.

How can family businesses keep themselves from splitting? By separating ownership and management

This article was first published in the Economic Times on March 10, 2021, Co: Author: S.Subramanian;

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/how-can-family-businesses-keep-themselves-from-splitting-by-separating-ownership-and-management/articleshow/81427776.cms 

Affiliation to a business group has many advantages in emerging economies. Access to internal capital, labour and product markets often provide the affiliated firms with competitive advantages in highly competitive markets. Being a part of the same group provides the firms with a common identity, mutual trust in ensuring coordination between the legally independent firms and framing joint-venture norms as in the case of the Tata group. The Tata Group is planning to enter the retail business in a big way, with a super-app, by combining the strengths of various Tata firms like TCS, Cliq, Croma and Trent.

Similarly, the cost of capital is also cheaper for the business group affiliated firms, compared to the standalone firms. One of the mains reasons for the success of Reliance Jio in the telecom business is the access to low-cost capital being a part of Reliance Industries. The access to low-cost capital provides a head-start while entering new ventures or in providing resources to a troubled group firm.

Further, the group firms can always seek proven talent from affiliated firms, immersed in the group’s work culture, to pursue new ventures or resolve problems. When the Murugappa group acquired the troubled CG Power recently, it appointed group veteran Natarajan Srinivasan, a proven talent, as CEO. The appointment was quick, saving valuable time, which otherwise would be spent on a lengthy selection process. Further, he could also quickly tap other proven talent across the group to resolve specific problems at CG Power.

Despite these obvious and proven advantages, why is it that the family business groups split?

Traditionally, in Indian family-controlled business groups, the family members were employed in the group firms at leadership position, by virtue of family membership. This worked well during the license raj era. The competition was limited, and success of the firm depended on the ability to deal with the bureaucracy to a large extent. Being a family member, the executive was able to use the family connections to manoeuvre the bureaucratic maze. The need for family connections to conduct the business to a greater extent worked as the glue that kept the family and the business together, generation after generation. But as the governmental controls came down, the role of connections within the government and bureaucracy started to come down. With increased competition, talent and innovation started to make a difference in the performance of the firm. Thus, it became imperative many family businesses to look outside for fresh ideas and talents to manage the businesses while they remained owners.

Many family businesses continue to appoint their progeny as the successor for the management of the company. All things being equal, it would be the right decision as a family member would bring greater continuity and would be steeped in the values of the family. However, when the next-gen is not the best person to lead the company, either due to lack of capability or willingness, it becomes a disadvantage for the firm and the group at large.

Especially in a business group, the individual capabilities of the family members playing executive role in affiliated group firms and the performance of those firms differ. Differing performances of group firms imply unequal contributions to the business group by the family members. This typically leads to an uncomfortable relationship among family members. This might also become a vicious cycle as the differences between family members may feed on to the poor performance of group firms. Even if all the firms in the group do well, there are often differences between the family members about executive decisions. The differences feed the need for a formal split in the business group.

Many Indian family-owned business groups have undergone split in the last two decades — Thapars, Munjals, Jindals, to name a few. Many of them had family members at the executive positions. Some groups managed the separation seamlessly like the TVS group and RPG group, while many other splits — like Ambanis and Kirloskars — happened after bitter fight among the family members.

We posit that if the advantages of a business group are to be more or less retained, a conscious separation of ownership and management must be made. The family members must restrict themselves to monitoring role (non-executive board positions), leaving the firm management to qualified professional managers. This is not to say that family members should not join the business at all. They should if they are the best talent available to manage the company. There should be a clearly laid out criteria for them to join the business that should be at par with that applicable for a non-family talent pool. Thus, even if the family member occupies executive leadership position, it should be based on merit and experience and not by virtue of being a member of the family. This is easier said than done. However, some business groups, like Aditya Birla group, Burmans and Mahindras have done it successfully, showing the path for other groups.

In the long run, the realization for the need to keep the group together, and subsequent action to keep the ownership separate from the management, will be critical to keep the business group together and reap the benefits of being a business group.

Perspectives on the Banking Dilemma in India: A Q&A with Vivek Kaul

This interview was first published in Risk Intelligence on March 5, 2021; https://www.garp.org/#!/risk-intelligence/credit/counterparty/a1Z1W000005krEZUAY

Recent projections by the Reserve Bank of India confirm that non-performing loans remain a significant hazard for banks. What are the origins of this risk, what’s the connection to COVID-19, and what are the prospects for India’s economic recovery?

Bad loans and deteriorating asset quality continue to plague banks in India. Last September, the gross non-performing assets ratio (GNPA) at Indian banks stood at 7.5%, but that number potentially could double in just a year’s time.

In its recent financial stability report, the Reserve Bank of India estimated that Indian banks’ GNPA ratio could increase to 13.5% under a baseline stress scenario and 14.8% under a severe stress scenario by September 2021. What’s more, for public-sector banks (PSBs), GNPA may rise to nearly 18%.

Vivek Kaul, the author of Bad Money: Inside the NPA Mess and Hot It Threatens the Indian Banking System, is a well-known commentator and podcaster who has written several books on India’s economy. He talked with Risk Intelligence about the NPA dilemma, the impact of COVID-19, default risk, regulatory flaws, and India’s path to economic recovery.

Risk Intelligence (RI): Can you pinpoint the primary reason for the bad debts and non-performing assets (NPAs) in India? Where does the fault actually lie?

Vivek Kaul (VK): If you look at the current phase of bad loans, which have accumulated over the last five years, I think the main reason for that lies in the period pre-2008. Between 2004 and 2006, the Indian economy grew by greater than 9% annually, resulting in a great deal of optimism among the politicians, bankers, businessmen, entrepreneurs and the public, in general. Suddenly, there was this story going around that India will be the next China, which basically meant that since China was growing in double digit rates, India would follow a similar path.

Entrepreneurs and businesses saw an opportunity. They believed that the growth would fuel demand for goods and services. They started to invest in the infrastructure that would drive this growth and fulfill the demand. The data between 2004 and 2008 shows that the loans to industry given by banks in India went through the roof, and that is where it all started:  the belief that India would continue growing at 9%.

RI: In India, the government uses PSBs to increase the money supply in the market. The latest financial stability report of the RBI, released in January 2021, says that the GNPA ratio of PSBs may increase to 17.6%. That number is frightening.

VK: It needs to be mentioned that if you calculate the numbers properly, they are even worse. What has happened is that the categorization of IDBI Bank - which was by far the worst-performing PSB, with a very high NPA of almost 32% - has been changed to that of a private bank. IDBI has NPLs of close to ₹500 billion, but these are now categorized by the RBI as the bad loans of a private bank, rather than a PSB.

Another well-kept secret of banking in India is that once a bad loan has been on the balance sheet of a bank for four years, it can be written off. After that period of time has elapsed, the loans drop from the balance sheet of the bank, reducing the bad-loan numbers for PSBs.

Moreover, Indian banks have a very low recovery rate of bad loans. Once you take these factors into account, it gives an entirely different dimension to the story.

Here’s what will happen: the bad loans that were recognized, let's say, in 2016, 2017, and 2018, will keep getting dropped off from the balance sheet of banks in the next couple of years. This will lead to the bad loans number coming down in the 2020-2021 financials of the banks. But there will also be fresh bad loans, which we will start to see on account of COVID-19.

RI: You mentioned about the mid-2000s and the optimism that followed. But then the global crisis happened in 2008, which led to the optimism not being there. What do you think the spirit of the times now is with the COVID-19 slump and recession? How will it impact the mess further, and what will recovery look like?

VK: This time around, the issue is a little different. Common sense tells us that this time there will be retail defaults, as well corporate defaults, because salaries have been slashed and people have lost jobs. The entire informal sector has seen huge destruction.

The data for listed Indian corporates for the quarter July to September 2020 actually shows that their profits went up, mainly because they have cut down their costs. But when a corporate cuts costs, someone else's income is being impacted.

For example, if you're a corporate who's making profits, and you've managed to cut down on your raw material costs, some supplier somewhere is seeing reduced business.  As a consequence, that supplier is likely doing the same thing with some of its third-party vendors. The impact is felt across the hierarchy, and that’s problematic.

We haven't yet begun to see the impact of this, because there is a case going on in the Supreme Court about whether the interest on loans during the COVID-19 months should be waived. Until that decision arrives, banks are not allowed to recognize defaults as bad loans. So, will we come to know how bad the defaults situation is at PSBs only after the Supreme Court hands down its decision.

It is also important to remember that more than 50% of all retail loans are home loans, and people will try their best to not default on home loans. So, that is a very good thing going for banks. But the other kinds of loans – e.g., credit card debt, personal loans, consumer durable loans and auto loans - will see an uptick in the defaults.

RI: In this case, culture could also play a big role, right?  In the U.S., the subprime crisis was essentially driven by home-loan defaults, but in India, people probably try to hold on to their homes more dearly, correct?

VK: Yes, the stigma of losing your home is huge in India. People will try selling everything, defaulting on everything else before they default on their home loan.

The other good thing is that even if people default, banks may not lose much. The first reason lies in the loan-to-value ratio (LTV). The LTV of entire home-loan business in India is between 65% and 70%, giving some margin to the banks.

What’s more, over and above the registered price of a house, in many parts of the country, there is a so-called “black portion” in mortgages, which gives a bank the right to recover most of the home loan, if defaulted, by selling the house.

RI: You mentioned in your book that there was an era of easy money in the Indian financial system in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2009. Do you predict the same will happen after COVID-19?

VK: That is already happening. The amount of money floating around right now is just humongous.

Banks don't know what to do with it. That is clearly visible in the fact that, one, they’re depositing billions of rupees with the RBI to the reverse-repo window, because they don't have any use for that money.

There is indeed a huge amount of liquidity in the system. Some of this has been driven by the RBI printing money, some of it has been driven by the fact that the psychology of a recession is totally in place.

Even though interest rates are falling, people want to save money with banks as deposits because, as of now, they are more worried about return of capital than return on capital.

People are scared. They have lost jobs, and salaries have been cut. Even for those who have not been economically impacted, the psychology of fear is at play, given that everyone wants to be prepared for a situation where, say, jobs are lost, and they are unable to find new positions.

Businesses are not borrowing, too, because with private consumption coming down, there is no need for businesses to borrow and expand. All these factors have come together, and there is consequently a huge amount of liquidity in the financial system.

RI: What can you say about India's path to economic recovery and the current so-called technical recession that we are in? How does it compare to other countries?

VK: The Indian economy contracted by around 15.7% during the half-year from April to September of 2020. In between April and June, we were right at the bottom. Between July and September, we were in the bottom quartile, though not right at the bottom. There were countries, like Chile and UK, which performed worse than India.

Now, to answer your question about when the economy will recover and when growth will go back into positive territory, there are varying opinions. But what most people are not talking about is the fact that India will not return to its 2019-20 GDP level until either late 2021 or early 2022, at the earliest. By the time we see this return, moreover, we will have lost two years of economic growth.

Another point to keep in mind is that a lot of this economic contraction is not simply because of COVID-19. The economy had been slowing down much before the pandemic struck. Indeed, if you look closely at the data between October and December 2019, India grew by just 4%. So, issues which were plaguing the Indian economy, even pre-pandemic, will now only get worse.

For example, the investment-to-GDP ratio has been falling in India since 2012, and that is not going to improve anytime soon. A lot of growth that is happening, or will happen, is basically jobless growth.

The rate of unemployment has been coming down, but how that rate is coming down is very interesting. It is because the labor force participation rate - proportion of the population that is looking for jobs - is also declining.

What that means is that many people who have been unable to find jobs have stopped looking for a job, and, hence, have dropped out of the labor force. This is a very worrying trend, because India anyway has a low labor force participation rate (especially among women), and I think this will only get worse post-pandemic.

The growth will eventually come back. For an economy of India’s size, people will eventually consume and spend money, and we can debate about t when this will happen. But long-term growth prospects of India have now, I think, been hurt, and all the talk of 8%-9% growth is overly optimistic. At this stage, even a 6% growth rate will be brilliant for India.

Lessons from TVS Group rejig: Towards filling each other’s cup but not drinking from the same cup

This article was first published in the Economic Times, January 18, 2021, Co-author: S. Subramanian; https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/lessons-from-tvs-group-rejig-towards-filling-each-others-cup-but-not-drinking-from-the-same-cup/articleshow/80322258.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

The announcement by the TVS group to rejig its ownership structure nudged us to examine the changing weave structure of business groups in India. Business groups are an integral part of the social and economic fabric of emerging economies. Their ubiquity suggests their continued relevance and impact on the economy. They are here to stay but are we seeing the beginning of a change in the form in which they have traditionally existed in India?

In a highly cited research paper published in the Journal of Finance in the year 2000, Harvard Business School professors Tarun Khanna and Krishna Palepu wrote, “the most diversified business groups add value by replicating the functions of institutions that are missing in this emerging market [India]. These institutional voids make it costly for individual firms to deal with product, capital, and labour markets because of information problems, imperfect contract enforcement, inability to enforce property rights, and flawed regulatory structures.” As such, it is argued that affiliation to a business group enables a firm to reduce the negative effects associated with weak institutional setups of emerging markets such as India.

In India, business groups also emerged as a tool to diversify into different businesses and set up multiple companies to overcome a few of the license-quota-permit raj challenges. Affiliated firms benefited from the reputation, political and bureaucratic connections, internal lending mechanisms, access to scarce resources, synergies, and economies of scale of the business group. Business families exercised substantive administrative control over the group firms, often ensuring that the whole (group) was greater than the sum of its parts (affiliated firms).

There have been apprehensions, however, about the functioning of the business groups, especially inefficient allocation of valuable group resources, poor reporting, transparency, and governance. In recent years, high profile corporate misadventures such as the Satyam scam where the promoter pledged the shares of Satyam to fund the operations of another group firm, Maytas; unravelling of the Zee group; fund diversions at Fortis-Religare group; group level governance opacity suggested by the exit of Cyrus Mistry from the Tata group; have pointed towards the agency costs associated with the business group structure. However, there seems to be a consensus that business groups have a net positive impact on the economy as well as the affiliated firms.

Since 1991, the Indian economy witnessed several policy reforms aimed at opening up of the economy. It resulted in concentrated efforts to improve the institutional mechanisms. Legal and regulatory reforms with respect to financial markets and efforts towards ease of doing business hint at the impending weaning away of the “filling institutional voids” advantages associated with business groups in the long run. Does this mean that business groups would eventually disappear in India? Evidence from the developed economies with limited institutional voids suggests otherwise. Business groups are thriving in Japan (ex. Mitsubishi group), South Korea (LG group), and Hong Kong (Jardine Matheson). We believe that they will continue to remain relevant in India too though with renewed contours.

Consider for example, the situation when units of a family have crossholdings in the group companies even though each unit may manage just one company. The ultimate benefit due to a family unit from the company that it manages may not be in congruence. The synchronizing of ownership at the TVS group suggests an attempt to simplify the ownership structure at the group level and doing away with crossholdings. It also points towards a greater alignment of interests between the owners and managers. Over time, the influence of a unit of the family over the companies managed by other units of the family may come down.

The family would need to keep in mind the ties that bind them, even as each unit claims greater independence. Common traditions, social practices, and collective identity should be strengthened further and capitalized on. Maintaining familial togetherness, despite being separate, will be the key to continuing to support each other when in need. Formal efforts towards sharing of learnings, goals and gaps in resources would be needed to ensure greater family awareness (as opposed to involvement) and thereby timely pooling of resources when needed by any one unit. Similarly, efforts to evolve a sense of belongingness amongst the different units of the family and the stakeholders of each of them will need to be undertaken.

As such, we might see the emergence of “family groups” separate from “business groups”. Where, the broad family is together, but businesses are separate. Where the purpose is not to fill institutional voids, but to “fill each other's cup but drink not from one cup”, as Kahili Gibran would have put it.

A generational shift in purpose and influence

Women constitute 18 percent of family business leaders globally. The highest percentage belonging to family businesses in Europe and Central Asia. Traditionally, women have been relegated to “invisible” role in the family businesses in administrative duties, or as informal advisors or to exclusively managing the household. However, the role of women in family business has been evolving over the last few decades.

The STEP Project Global Consortium and KPMG Private Enterprise surveyed over 1,800 family businesses from 33 countries across the globe, to reflect upon how demographic shifts are changing the role of women in family businesses – the value that women contribute, the various forms of influence they may have on the success of their businesses and the families and the unique competitive advantages they can deliver. Thomas Schmidheiny Centre for Family Enterprise, Indian School of Business being the only member from India conducted the survey in India with responses from 53 companies across both manufacturing and services sectors.

The report finds that women in family businesses are slowly breaking the stereotype and engendering greater diversity at the workplace. Though women continue to face the dilemma and role conflict, they are equipping themselves to balance the obligations at work and at home. “Both men and women contribute to gender stereotyping and hence they need to work together and clearly define the roles, responsibilities and communicate to all stakeholders”, said Dr. Nupur Pavan Bang. “Organizational practices and policies are required that promote fairness and minimize bias”, she further adds. Some of the salient findings of the report are: 

Emerging from the shadows: Women are now equipped with the required education and training and actively taking up positions of power, authority, and decision-making roles in the family business. They are taking up leadership positions in the so-called masculine industries such as manufacturing, mining, and construction. 

The ‘hidden’ CEO: The societal and cultural bias have women play the role of a chief emotional officer. They are required to nurture and take care of the emotional needs of the family, keeping the family together and perpetuating the family’s values and traditions across generations. Instinctively, these unique characteristics make women holistic leaders with unique management styles and are an asset to the organization. 

Redefining “women’s work”: Women in family businesses, especially Millennials, are breaking down the barriers and redefining how women in non-traditional businesses are perceived. Many highly competent women leaders are successfully managing their family businesses in male-dominated industries such as steel and scrap-metal processing, cement manufacturing and the production of hardware products. They have the knowledge, experience and skills in their business and are valued and respected by the employees and customers. 

Transformational power of women: Though women continue to face role conflicts, they are able to balance the need at the workplace and at home. They have sophisticated and transformational leadership style, judgement, and unique outlook. 

Succession by merit: Traditionally in family businesses, succession is based on primogeniture, which discourages women to consider professional careers in their family’s business. However, certain country level rules such as gender equality movements and one-child policy in China have given women better access to resources. Family firms’ decision on succession are increasingly being driven on merit and capability instead of gender. 

Societal change and family business leadership: There has been a push from governments around the world to address the issue of under-representation of women in business. For example, In India, the amendment to the Hindu Succession Act in 2005 conferred property rights to daughters (married or unmarried) and granted them equal rights as the sons. Also, the mandatory gender quota for women on corporate boards introduced by the Companies Act (2013) prompted family firms to have higher percentage of women representation on the boards as compared to non-family firms. However, most of the family business leaders believe that quotas are not the answer and only help to generate awareness of the existing bias. 

Outdated mindsets: Women in family businesses can bring about the change in organization and society and help mentor, guide, and develop the pipeline for future women leaders. 

The findings of the survey are relevant to the family businesses in India too. Women in Indian family businesses have been breaking the various cultural and societal biases and perpetuating the businesses to new frontiers. Yet, in India, female participation in work force is decreasing and is one of the lowest in the world. India is placed at 95 out of the 129 member countries in the UN SDG gender index score and is ranked below the global average on gender equality. Women in family businesses are well placed to lead the way to bring about greater gender parity, offer and create opportunities for other women too. 

The editorial team behind the report comprised of Dr. Nupur Pavan Bang and Yashodhara Basuthakur (Thomas Schmidheiny Centre for Family Enterprise, Indian School of Business), Andrea Calabrò, (STEP Global Academic Director & IPAG Family Business Institute, IPAG Business School), Mary Jo Fedy, Karmen Yeung and Tom McGinness (KPMG) amongst others.