This article
was first published in the GARP, Risk Intelligence on March 27, 2020; The
author would like to thank Priyansh Hetamsaria for his inputs. The views
expressed are personal.
India’s pivotal ‘Xennial’ generation has lived through a
lot, but nothing like the pandemic.
Countries
around the world are struggling to keep up with the pandemic coronavirus.
Global stock markets are on a downward spiral due to fears of recession,
massive drops in demand, disruptions in supply chains and job losses amidst the
rush towards virtual lockdowns. While companies have been asking employees to
work from home, there are many sectors where such work arrangements are not
possible – banking, tourism, retail shopping, agriculture, transportation and
many more. The alternative could be to close the business.
In industries
such as airlines, tourism, hospitality and restaurants, retailing,
entertainment including theme parks like Universal Studios and Disney, luxury
goods, fashion and autos – business has nosedived. Billions of dollars of
investor wealth have evaporated. The cost to the global economy could be $2.7
trillion, equivalent to the entire GDP of the U.K., and that is just one early
estimate. As of now, there is no end or bottom in sight.
The outbreak
started in Wuhan, China, in the late 2019 and turned into an epidemic when the
COVID-19 virus spread across China. On March 11, the World Health Organization
declared it a pandemic. The number of cases worldwide has climbed into hundreds
of thousands, touching virtually every country, and can be tracked online. Even
the most developed countries are struggling to fight the disease with existing
medical facilities.
These are
clearly unprecedented times. As I write this article from India, in the city of
Hyderabad, we are in virtual lockdown, working from home, and scared.
Interstate borders have been closed, all public and private transportation
facilities have been suspended, all commercial establishments shall remain
closed except those in essential services like medicines and groceries. Even
government officials and bank employees are working on rotation with minimal
staff.
As of March
25, the lockdown is nationwide.
I belong to
the Xennial generation, a cohort born between 1977 and 1985 that doesn’t quite
fit in the Generation X or Millennial category. We did not go to war. We did
not struggle for independence. We have seen many things in our 40 or so years.
But nothing like this.
War and
terrorism: Xennials like me have been locked up at home during the curfew
imposed when Indira Gandhi was assassinated, and the Bombay bombings of 1993.
We were glued to our televisions watching the Mumbai attacks in 2008, the
September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center, and the Paris attacks of
November 2015. We have lived through the Kargil war, the Gulf War, the killing
of Osama bin Laden and the Uri surgical strikes. We have seen the Berlin Wall
come down and the cold war end, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the
formation of the European Union and Brexit.
Technology:
We are the generation that saw storage evolve from 1.44mb floppy disks to CDs
to DVDs to Blu-rays to Pen Drives to Cloud; televisions make their way into our
households and now into our palms; telephones evolve from bulky devices to
sleek iPhones, even with facial recognition. We who sat in anticipation for the
weekly popular music programs Binanca geet mala on radio, and the Chitrahar on
the government broadcast channel Doordarshan, were in awe at the Sony Walkman.
I owned a Sony Discman with pride before it became outdated by iPods. And now,
iTunes and gaana.com rule.
Economy
and reforms: Reform by stealth in India – by way of telecommunications,
information technology and biotechnology – began when this generation was
coming into the world. Dr. Manmohan Singh unleashed full-fledged economic
reforms in 1991, seen on our television sets, without us completely realizing
the impact when we were between the ages of 6 and 14. But there was palpable
excitement in our middle-class business family. We saw the dot-com bubble
burst, the birth of National Stock Exchange of India, the Harshad Mehta and
Ketan Parekh scams, the subprime crisis and demonetization.
Business:
We followed the rags-to-riches story of Dhirubhai Ambani of Reliance Industries
being taken forward by his son Mukesh Ambani, and the riches-to-rags decline of
his younger son Anil Ambani. We saw the rise – and recent downfall – of Yes
Bank. We felt pride at the Golden Peacock award for corporate governance that
Satyam Computer Services won in 2008, and the shock of the collapse of
governance just a few months later. And there was the rise of Apple, Facebook
and Amazon.
Sports:
We grew up watching sporting heroes Sachin Tendulkar, the greatest cricketer of
all time; the tennis great Roger Federer; and Cristiano Ronaldo in football.
The cricket 20 overs format and the Indian Premier League were born and gained
prominence during our youth.
Movies and
fashion: The rise of the Khans, the superstar acting trio of Shahrukh, Amir
and Salman; the movies Dilwale dulhaniya le jayenge, Qayamat se Qayamat tak and
Maine pyaar kiya, which broke all box office records, tugged at our
heartstrings, and the trio captured our hearts. Sushmita Sen and Aishwarya Rai
took India and Indian beauty to the global stage by winning the Miss Universe
and Miss World crowns in the same year (1994), and became successes as
Bollywood actresses.
Yes, we have
seen a lot. But not this. COVID-19 has left us with a feeling of helplessness.
What does tomorrow hold? For how long will we need to maintain social distance
from family, friends and colleagues? Until when will our supplies last? How do
we entertain our young kids? And for how long? Will we have a job tomorrow?
That person who came to deliver the newspaper, did he infect the newspaper? I
just coughed – have I contracted the virus?
There are
many questions. No answers. All we can do is try and stay safe and have hope.
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